What will happen to real estate this year? Buy for change

Experts spoke about how sanctions will affect the affordability of housing and mortgages, as well as the development of development projects in Russia

Photo: Alexander Tarasenkov/Interpress/TASS

On April 6, the US Treasury imposed sanctions against Russian billionaires, top managers and officials. This caused a collapse in stock prices of Russian companies. At the same time, a sharp weakening of the ruble exchange rate was noted.

“The US strategy is to reduce investor interest in any Russian companies”

Maria Litinetskaya, managing partner of Metrium, member of the CBRE partner network

— Shares of Russian development companies fell on international exchanges, although neither these companies themselves nor their managers were included in the sanctions list. For example, LSR shares fell in price by 9%, and Etalon Group - by 11%. The fact is that the American administration’s strategy is aimed at a general reduction in investor interest in any Russian companies. Investors do not know, relatively speaking, who will be next, so the shares of all domestic players sank. In the future, this situation may complicate Russian developers’ access to foreign capital markets, although their importance for the industry is minimal.

Sanctions may affect the Russian real estate market as a whole primarily indirectly, through a worsening economic situation. For example, yesterday, due to a fall in domestic stock prices, the ruble weakened noticeably. Since Russia is still largely dependent on imports, any strengthening of the dollar and euro leads to higher prices for everything, including Construction Materials, and at the same time the solvency of potential home buyers suffers. Accordingly, the acceleration of inflation and the difficulty of domestic banks’ access to cheap loans in the West will become a big obstacle to reducing key rate Central Bank, as well as increasing the availability of mortgages.

“Sanctions may affect banks - leaders in mortgages”

Dmitry Trubnikov, financial director of A101 Group of Companies

— Presence on the stock exchange expands the company’s capabilities and improves its reputation among clients and counterparties, but does not have a critical impact on performance, at least due to the fact that the real estate market is very local. As far as we know, all public companies involved in the development business continue to operate as normal and do not experience difficulties in fulfilling their obligations.

The construction industry may be more seriously affected by the impact of circumstances on large banks under sanctions, including the current leaders in the field of mortgage lending. For the second year in a row, mortgages have been the main driver of demand; the share of transactions using them is constantly increasing and now amounts to about 65%. A decrease in capitalization may limit the banks' capabilities in this area.

In addition, the imminent entry into force of amendments to 214-FZ will make banks both the only source of financing for development projects and the holder of escrow accounts in which funds received from buyers of apartments in new buildings will be accumulated before their commissioning. Long before the introduction of sanctions, questions remained open about the readiness and ability of banks to fully replace the mechanisms for raising funds under the DDU with their financing, as well as the public’s trust in the banking industry as a whole. If the negative consequences of sanctions are not leveled out in the near future, these issues will become even more acute.

"Buyers' incomes will become too low to buy a home"

Marina Tolstik, managing partner of Miel-Network of Real Estate Offices

— The fall of the ruble and the rise of the dollar and euro will definitely spur demand for real estate, because this is the only tool with which an ordinary citizen of our country can try to save their savings, which are rapidly losing value. Accordingly, an increase in demand will cause a faster absorption of submitted offers, a decrease in competition and the opportunity for sellers to maintain prices by providing a smaller discount. Naturally, real estate prices will rise.

If the fall in stock markets turns out to be protracted, then the growth in demand for real estate will be followed by another stagnation in real estate: everyone who wants and has time to buy apartments will do so, and for the rest the income level will become too low to solve housing issues.

“The demand for suburban real estate will fall”

Dmitry Taganov, head of the Inkom-Real Estate analytical center:

— It cannot be said that the initiatives of the American authorities will lead to any global changes in the primary housing market in the capital region. Yes, some large entrepreneurs lost part of their funds, but their personal interests suffered, and not the real estate market as a whole.

However, the macroeconomic situation may become much more complicated if not individual, but so-called sectoral sanctions are introduced, affecting different industries. But their introduction can affect the real estate market only indirectly. The consequence of sanctions in some industries may be a reduction in jobs, bonus payments and other salary bonuses.

Due to the fall in the solvency of the population, the demand for real estate will decrease, and to a greater extent this will affect suburban housing, which is now in a state of stagnation. But the segment of new buildings feels quite comfortable. And what is especially significant is that it was in the last few years (just when sanctions were in effect) that we recorded a colossal increase in the volume of supply in the “primary” market both in the capital and in the Moscow region.

“The weakening of the ruble will attract home buyers to the market”

Pavel Poselenov, President of the Ingrad development group

— Real estate in our country has been and remains one of the most reliable assets for preserving funds during periods of political and economic cataclysms. The foreign policy situation did not change yesterday, but 2017 and the beginning of 2018 showed the presence and growth of stable effective demand, including due to lower mortgage rates. In less than four years, demand has recovered.

Perhaps the weakening of the ruble will cause an increase in demand and the entry into the market of those buyers who were planning a purchase and fear the devaluation of the national currency. In any case, it is now important to make a choice in favor of a reliable developer with a diversified portfolio, who can work efficiently with both the product and the price.

“The development projects of the defendants are unlikely to suffer”

Sergey Lobzhanidze, director of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro:

“This is not the first time that sanctions have been introduced. Previously taken measures against the largest banks did not reveal a significant impact on the housing market: there was no increase in mortgage lending rates; on the contrary, rates are systematically decreasing, and the share of mortgage transactions is growing. The residential real estate market is mainly focused on domestic buyers. Therefore, companies trading on world markets will be the first to suffer from the new sanctions.

Yes, the new sanctions list includes companies that include development structures - these are the Basic Element and Renova holdings. Their subsidiaries today are actively building in Moscow, the Moscow region and some regions of Russia. The product of these companies is focused mainly on the domestic market - as an analysis of transactions on their projects confirms, the demand is mainly local. Thus, sanctions should not have a significant impact on the development of these projects. On the contrary, the market may experience an increase in demand in a number of segments of residential real estate from emigrants and “return migrants.”

Daromir Obukhanich, General Director of the MIC Group of Companies

— Russian market real estate as a sector of the Russian economy cannot fail to respond to factors foreign policy. The current volatility of exchange rates and the weakening of the ruble may provoke an increase in demand, but to a greater extent this is a projection of the short-term perspective. The reaction of purchasing activity will most likely become an expression of a stress scenario, when, in conditions of uncertainty, the need to preserve one’s savings will increase.

But in the long term, new sanctions further complicate the country’s economic situation, which is certainly not encouraging Russian business. The depreciation of the Russian currency as a result of the collapse of Russian indices by 9% due to external pressure will affect the solvency of the population, purchasing power will decrease.

In addition, there is a possibility that the Central Bank will increase the key rate, and this may lead to an increase in the cost of credit resources, in particular mortgages and lines of credit for developers, which will lead to a change in the supply price. Thus, it is difficult to predict the development of demand in the standard housing segment, which currently remains tensely stable, and therefore difficult to predict the dynamics of market development.

“Development projects will become more expensive”

​Aidar Galeev, head of the strategic consulting department at RRG

— The set of sanctions, apparently, is far from complete. In particular, they started talking about banning the purchase of Russian government and corporate bonds, which is very serious. It is generally impossible to imagine what kind of anti-sanctions there might be (like a food embargo) and how they will affect the Russian economy.

In any case, it is clear that nothing good will happen. A decrease in revenue volumes and the value of shares of companies subject to sanctions will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of financing any investment projects, including development projects, a decrease in profits, etc. Many companies associated with them will also suffer. In this situation, the simplest (however does not mean the most correct) solution is to stop investment (development) projects, revise them and sell them. But today it is not possible to assess the scale of this negative effect.

“An external shock may delay planned legislative initiatives”

Olga Shirokova, director of consulting and sales management departments for residential projects at Knight Frank

— On the one hand, the real estate market is much more stress-resistant, and here we are in a much more advantageous position than the stock or currency market. And developers, investors and buyers simply do not have time to react to short-term shocks. On the other hand, if, for example, we talk about the Moscow residential real estate market, then there are plenty of irritants here. This is a significant volume of supply, legislative initiatives, and echoes of changes in the banking sector.

Perhaps, based on objective prerequisites and having received additional subjective impetus, the residential real estate market will find itself in a zone of instability. And perhaps today’s external shock will contribute to the easing of market regulation and the postponement/cancellation of a number of legislative initiatives planned for the summer of 2018.

“You shouldn’t expect a quick reaction from the real estate market”

Vladimir Sergunin, partner, Colliers International

— It is unlikely that these sanctions will directly affect the activities of Russian development structures whose owners are caught in new list. However, if sanctions affect operational activities major players in the Russian economy (like the fall in RUSAL quotes after the notification of a possible default), this could cause further imbalance in exchange rates and negative pressure on the financial market and the economy as a whole.

At the same time, the government’s announced program to provide assistance to companies whose owners have fallen under sanctions will be aimed at preventing a possible spill over effect in the real sectors of the economy, including real estate. At the same time, the real estate market is much less volatile than the market of financial instruments and currencies; the reaction to changes usually occurs within four to six months, so you should not expect an immediate reaction.

“Developers must learn to adapt to changes”

Tatyana Podkidysheva, sales director of the company "NDV-Real Estate Supermarket"

— The real estate market has gone through the vicissitudes associated with political turbulence and sanctions, and news about the expansion of the circle of companies included in the sanctions list no longer causes the same consequences as before. Business has learned to live in new conditions, and, despite the fact that there is no political unfreezing towards Russia, the improvements that have occurred in our economy over the past Lately, have a positive effect on domestic demand.

The main problems in the real estate segment are now on a different plane. This is the need to build processes in a dense market and industry reform, which requires developers to have effective management and the ability to adapt to changes. The offsetting factor is the introduction of more affordable mortgages. The conditions are attractive for Russian realities, not to mention the commercial subsidization of interest rates.

“Retail real estate rental rates may decline”

Olesya Dzyuba, head of research at JLL

— For real estate, the advantage is that after the devaluation of the Russian currency in 2014, the rental market moved to the ruble zone and the current dynamics of the ruble will not have a serious impact on rental conditions. Nevertheless, the most noticeable effect on the commercial real estate market may be the effect of further prolonged weakening of the ruble.

Exporting companies may pause their plans to expand office space or move to better premises. Importing companies may pause the development of their logistics platforms. Companies with loans in foreign currency will be forced to refinance them into rubles: as a result, the cost of bank financing for them will increase. Height may increase consumer prices, which will negatively affect the purchasing power of Russians. Considering that rental rates for retail real estate, as a rule, depend on turnover, this may lead to a decrease in rental rates for retail premises. All of the above will have an effect only in the event of a prolonged weakening of the ruble.

Given the current level of the ruble exchange rate, the impact on inflation will be limited: with a high probability, the inflation rate will remain around the 4% target level of the Central Bank. The pass-through effect of the exchange rate on inflation, according to the latest Central Bank estimates, is 0.10-0.12. If the current ruble quotes continue, recording an approximately 10% weakening against the US dollar, from 57 to 63, then 1.0-1.2 points will be added to inflation over the 12-month horizon. Let's assume that if there are no other changes, this will lead to an increase in inflation to 5% in a year. The currency effect will then fall out of inflation, returning it to 4%. In this scenario, the Central Bank will likely be slower to reduce interest rates.

We see this scenario as quite negative. As a rule, sharp currency fluctuations are followed by a period of correction. Therefore, both the weakening of the ruble and its effect on inflation are likely to be significantly smaller and will not cause a correction in the monetary policy of the Central Bank. And the emotional effect and, as a result, increased volatility in the financial market will disappear in the near future.

According to realtors, in 2017 the demand for Crimean real estate decreased. Most of the transactions were for small apartments worth about three million rubles. At the same time, experts believe that it will not be possible to maintain this trend in the coming year.

Now Crimea continues to hold its position in the top 5 regions with expensive housing. According to the World of Apartments portal, the most expensive one-room apartments are sold in Moscow, the average offer price is 11 million rubles. The capital is followed by St. Petersburg - 7.9 million rubles, then Sevastopol - 4.5 million rubles, the Moscow region and Crimea - four million rubles. In Crimea and Sevastopol, apartments with an area of ​​about 40 square meters are in demand.

Mostly small one-room apartments are in demand. The cost of most transactions is about three million rubles, the maximum amount is up to five million, says Sergei Anblagov, head of the appraisal department of the Sevastopol real estate agency.

The director of the Yalta real estate agency Andrey Morozov confirms the trend.

80 percent of requests are for small apartments costing about three million rubles. They are mainly purchased for flight recreation. One-room apartments with an area of ​​45 to 80 square meters sell less well, and their owners are forced to reduce prices, says Morozov.

In general, realtors note a decrease in prices in some segments of the primary and secondary markets due to a drop in demand.

On the primary market there was a decrease in prices by two percent per month, the secondary market showed a stable price in the economy segment, and on average there was also a decrease in the cost of apartments. Private houses that were built a long time ago are also becoming cheaper, notes Andrei Morozov.

But in forecasts of what will happen to real estate prices in 2018, expert opinions differ. In Sevastopol, they predict an increase in prices for apartments in new buildings, because there is a shortage of them. The fact is that since 2014, the city has introduced a moratorium on the allocation of land for development. Now the land is being developed using permits issued back in the Ukrainian period.

In Crimea, the situation on the real estate market is stable. A boom in construction and, accordingly, sales is expected by 2019. According to experts, the volume of housing construction on the peninsula will increase after the commissioning of a bridge across Kerch Strait. This will be facilitated by the establishment of delivery of building materials from the mainland, the arrival of new developers, the availability of mortgage loans and the growing demand for Crimean real estate.

Renting apartments in Crimea and Sevastopol remains consistently expensive. According to the World of Apartments portal, the most expensive rental housing is in Moscow (29 thousand rubles per month), St. Petersburg and Sochi. Simferopol was in fourth place, here the average offer price is 18 thousand rubles, the rental price increased by 5.2 percent over the year. Next in the price ranking are the Moscow region and Sevastopol (16.5 thousand rubles).

A special feature of housing rentals on the South Coast is seasonality, so landlords are often ready to provide shelter to residents only from October 30 to April 30, and evict them in the summer in order to rent out apartments to tourists on a daily basis. The rental rate in this part of Crimea in the summer is traditionally higher than in Simferopol. For a one-room apartment on the secondary market, its owners ask from 20 to 30 thousand rubles a month, in a new building it is even more expensive, from 35 thousand rubles.

There is a consistently high demand for rental housing in Sevastopol. Rent of a one-room apartment - 15-20 thousand rubles per month.

50 percent of the tenants are military and government employees from the mainland. The rest are local young families and students who are looking for a one-room apartment for 15 - 16 thousand rubles a month, but there are very few of them, says Marina Zvinnik-Yurchenko, a specialist at a Sevastopol real estate agency.

At the same time, experts emphasize that there are no prerequisites for reducing rental prices.

In general, there is a shortage of high-quality and inexpensive rental apartments on the peninsula. And only in Sevastopol, the supply of housing on the primary market has increased over the past few years; people are actively buying apartments in new buildings and renting them out.

By the way

In Crimea, housing commissioning almost doubled compared to last year, to 549.5 thousand square meters. In 2016, this figure was 284.9 thousand square meters. But in order to solve the problem of relocating people from dilapidated houses and to get closer to the Russian average housing supply, the republic needs to build more than a million square meters annually.

The New Year is already looming on the horizon, and with it, changes! Those who are planning to acquire housing next year or change their current apartment to a more spacious option are interested in whether apartments will become more expensive in 2018 and when it will be profitable to buy an apartment.

The company's experts predicted what will happen to the real estate market in 2018. Anna Simashova, head of secondary and suburban real estate, Svetlana Dyakova, head of real estate under construction, and Nikita Evtushenko, marketer of M16 Group, give their comments.

Real estate laws in 2018

Nikita Yevtushenko: Of course, the main topic of next year in the primary market will be the gradual abandonment of “top-up”. Last news in the real estate sector were devoted to Putin’s instructions to cancel shared-equity construction and move towards sales of finished housing.

Instead of funds from shareholders, construction will be “sponsored” by banks. More precisely, developers will receive loans for the implementation of their projects. At least, this is the possibility that is being considered now. In fact, the question remains whether banks will take it on.

If the answer is positive, then the market will begin to reform. The list of developers will be reduced: companies that have their own funds will eventually “squeeze out” developers who are forced to constantly receive credit funds from the market.

But while this is only the beginning of the process, shared construction will not disappear from January 1. More realistic terms are 2-4 years, no less. But next year the conditions of 214-FZ will become noticeably tougher (for developers). For example, it is prohibited to construct several objects at the same time.

Marketer of M16 Group Nikita Evtushenko

Svetlana Dyakova: Yes, you definitely shouldn’t expect changes in the area of ​​shared-equity construction in the next couple of years. The abandonment of the already familiar sales format will significantly change the market; neither citizens nor the state are yet ready for such drastic changes. It is not yet clear exactly how much the price will increase and how this will affect purchasing power.

In addition, the market situation is not so critical that we immediately refuse to “replenish” it. There are unreliable and even downright unscrupulous developers, but there are also many good, reputable companies that have already proven themselves.

However, the President has given clear instructions on this issue. In the future, we will still move away from shared construction.

Real estate prices in 2018

Svetlana Dyakova: Next year we will see a rise in prices, and a dynamic one at that. Prices will rise in all segments and in all markets. This is simply annual growth due to economic processes and the results of market reform.

If we talk about new buildings, the prices for apartments now include additional costs that developers incur in connection with the implementation of the compensation fund. Let me remind you that developers must contribute a percentage of each DDU to this fund. Of course, this is “sponsored” by the apartment buyers themselves.

If the transition to bank financing begins next year, this will also affect pricing. My advice is this: the best time to buy an apartment from a financial point of view is now. It will only get more expensive.

Head of secondary and suburban real estate Anna Simashova M16 Group

Nikita Yevtushenko: It should be noted that price increases are likely to be more dynamic and sharp than what we have seen before. If you are wondering when is the best time to buy an apartment in 2018, then I agree with my colleague: the sooner the better. Apartment prices will rise every month.

Mortgage trends in the real estate market

Anna Simashova: In 2018, the mortgage market will continue to intensify. Independent banking experts are confident that we will see a further reduction in the key rate. But even without this, the banks themselves strive to remain competitive in the market, so they offer new mortgage products to their clients.

The conditions for taking out loans to buy an apartment are becoming easier, and the loans themselves are becoming cheaper. At the same time, purchasing power has not increased sharply, that is, at the expense of their own funds, and now few can afford to buy housing.

Nikita Yevtushenko: If next year we will see the first cases of construction financing by banks, then in 2018 the rules for accreditation of objects may change: banks will better see the risks and weaknesses of the projects they sponsor, making it easier for developers to accredit their complexes.

At the same time, it can be assumed that the banks themselves will increase the attractiveness of the complexes for the construction of which they issue loans through unique mortgage products.

Svetlana Dyakova: Of course, the mortgage industry will grow. As my colleague said, rates are falling, and this trend will likely continue into next year. A mortgage is already the most popular way to buy an apartment, and if the rate drops even lower, this will attract even more buyers. This is an excellent opportunity for the population to buy a comfortable apartment in a new building at an attractive price.

It is unlikely that we will notice any fundamental innovations on the part of banks, most likely mortgage market will behave predictably. Already, many offer a loan with just 2 documents or without an initial fee. It works and it stays on the market, why reinvent the wheel?

What will happen to real estate in 2018?

Svetlana Dyakova: No significant changes are expected in real estate formats. Perhaps the supply of studio housing in new projects will be reduced, but developers will not completely abandon studios. There is always a buyer for such apartments; this is the most affordable format of full-fledged housing.

Another interesting picture on the market concerns finishing. The Ministry of Construction insists on mandatory finishing, but this is not justified in all projects. For example, complexes of the “comfort+”, “business” and higher segments. Buyers of apartments in such houses prefer to order individual design projects and decorate the housing according to their wishes and tastes. For them, finished finishing will become a problem; in this case, no one will want to overpay for an unnecessary option.

Moreover, this applies not only to complete repairs, but also to pre-finishing. If future buyers plan to remodel, finishing from the developer is a waste of money for them.

At the same time, in the mass market, the requirement for mandatory finishing will most likely take root. However, many projects already provide this option, clients use it, and finishing in the affordable housing segment is in great demand.

Anna Simashova: The format of sales of luxury real estate is being reformed - closed sales will begin to “thrive” here. Firstly, premium-class objects that have been replicated will be of no interest to customers; they simply won’t be surprised by this. Secondly, buyers in this segment are now trying to keep a low profile.

The real estate market is always sensitive to the economic situation in the country. This is one of the most volatile markets, and the price per square meter depends on many factors. Buying or selling a house or apartment is usually not a quick matter, and in both cases (unless we are talking about selling an apartment for the purpose of buying another, when the general level of housing prices is not so important) you should approach the moment of the transaction wisely. The buyer benefits from low prices per square meter, the seller benefits from high housing prices. And the forecasts of market experts are something that is definitely worth listening to. Real estate prices in 2018-2019 - forecast of real estate market analysts on the further dynamics of the price per square meter in Russia.

What forecasts for real estate prices did experts give before the beginning of 2018?

At the beginning of the year, Gazeta.Ru published a forecast of real estate prices in 2018. According to the forecast of analysts surveyed by online media, the general direction of the real estate market in Russia this year will be different for new buildings and secondary housing. New housing will become more expensive, secondary housing will become cheaper.

Experts did not expect a sharp increase in the cost per square meter in new buildings. According to analysts, over the year as a whole, new buildings should rise in price by 2-3 percent, which corresponded to the then expectations about inflation in the country.

Although analysts expected that new buildings in Russia would become more expensive, they also mentioned some factors that should restrain price growth. For example, in Moscow, the de facto ban on the construction of new housing, which Mayor Sobyanin introduced when he came to power in the city, has now been lifted.

The renovation program has again started construction in the capital. This has led to a noticeable drop in interest in new buildings in the Moscow region.

On the one hand, high demand for new apartments in Moscow stimulates an increase in their prices. But on the other hand, the volume of construction is such that there is enough housing for everyone. It is precisely due to this balance of supply and demand in Moscow that new buildings will rise in price moderately.

As for secondary housing, it should become cheaper due to this. that the demand for it is less than the supply. The fact is that many government programs are aimed at ensuring that people buy housing in new buildings (take the terms of the same preferential mortgage for families with children). Thus, the state supports the construction sector of the economy. This delays the demand for secondary goods.

Current statistics from the real estate portal Rosrielt show that, in general, the analysts surveyed by Gazeta.Ru in January were not mistaken. At the end of the first half of 2018, secondary housing prices fell by 0.67%. New buildings rose in price by 0.22%. This is noticeably lower than experts expected, but the portal data is not entirely indicative and reflects only part of the market.

In addition, it is worth remembering that the real estate market in Russia is, in principle, quite uneven. What is true for Moscow has no relevance for a small or medium-sized city in the province and vice versa. Besides, in last years There is a tendency for Russians to migrate from disadvantaged cities to more prosperous ones in terms of ecology, economy or climate.

Photo: ru.m.wikipedia.org

What will real estate prices be in 2019 - analysts' forecast

The Vesti.Real Estate portal held a round table this spring with the participation of analysts regarding what real estate prices will be in the future until the end of 2019.

Most of the round table experts agreed that in 2019 the increase in housing prices will be quite noticeable.

The first reason for future price increases is the cancellation of shared-equity construction, which will happen on July 1 of next year. Already in mid-2018, the transition to the complete abolition of shared-equity construction actually began. In fact, next year a situation will begin to become the norm in which the developer builds a house entirely at his own expense, and then sells apartments in the house at the market price, without any discounts that were due at the construction stage.

The second reason for the increase in the cost of new housing is the globalization of the real estate market. small developers will be forced to either leave the market or join large companies, or merge into a large trust. For large companies It will be easier to insist on high prices per square meter; they will not need to discount to survive.

Another factor is integrated development, which is increasingly being resorted to in Russia. First, one apartment building is built, next to which infrastructure facilities are created (shops are opened, kindergarten, clinic, etc., a road is being built). Then other buildings of the complex begin to grow nearby, apartments in which are sold at 5-10 percent more expensive than apartments in the first building.

If we talk about mortgages, analysts are optimistic - they expect the trend of lower mortgage rates to continue. Already now, when the average rate has dropped below 10% per annum, Russians have begun to take out mortgage loans more willingly. If the mortgage rate is reduced to 8.5-9 percent, such lending will become an even more serious driver for the entire real estate market in Russia in 20189 and 2019.

The question “what will happen to apartment prices in this year” worries all potential home buyers. The Elite.RU portal interviewed analysts and representatives of large real estate agencies, but the experts did not come to a consensus.

Economist, associate professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking at RANEPA Sergei Khestanov:

– I think that, if we talk about ruble prices, stagnation will continue in the Moscow housing market in the near future. And in dollars, there is potential for decline. The dollar/ruble exchange rate in our country is currently seriously influenced by two factors. The first is the upcoming presidential elections in Russia: the authorities are trying with all their might to strengthen the national currency, but the elections are just around the corner, and then the ruble exchange rate will no longer be given as much attention as it is now. The second factor is world oil prices. Production is growing steadily in the United States. Thus, this week, for the first time in 50 years, oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day. This means that oil prices will drop sooner or later, followed by the ruble. I think that the ruble will fall in price by 10-15%. But when and how this will happen is difficult to say now.

Leading analyst of CIAN Alexander Pypin:

– On the primary market, prices have been declining for a long time. It just doesn't happen explicitly. For example, by subsidizing mortgage rates, free registration rights or finished finishing. And there are many such moments! Developers are forced to reduce the cost, because people do not have the funds to buy housing. Recently, the percentage of mortgage transactions has been constantly growing: real money is being replaced by borrowed money.

Developers will be offering goodies to buyers at least until the end of 2018

Why is the decline veiled? It's simple - people are afraid to buy goods that are getting cheaper. If this is done openly, then a psychological factor will be added to the economic factor. Those who can still afford it will also stop buying apartments. And when a developer gives buyers gifts and treats them with goodies, most people do not notice the price drop. I believe that developers will be “treating” buyers with goodies at least until the end of 2018. And the number of “goodies” will grow!

It is difficult to guess what will happen next... The amount of money among the population will not increase, but the supply of new housing will fall. I think that in the next three years it will decrease by 10-15% compared to the current moment. New buildings will be a fairly reliable investment tool, but not the best one for investment. Of course, you can make money locally by buying an apartment “at the foundation stage” or next to a metro station under construction, but globally you shouldn’t count on rising prices in the real estate segment in the next three years.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of the BEST-Novostroy company Irina Dobrokhotova:

– In 2018, pricing in the new buildings market will be primarily affected by tightening legislation. From July 1, 2018, developers will switch to a new business model, which will seriously complicate their lives. Accordingly, the upcoming changes will push the market to quickly bring previously planned projects to implementation, as evidenced by the increased interest of investors in sites with a full package of documents. Thus, there is every reason to believe that in the near future the primary housing market will be significantly replenished with new offers, which, against the backdrop of tougher competition, will restrain price growth.

Managing Partner of Metrium Group Maria Litinetskaya:

– Now the prerequisites for rising prices are being formed in the primary housing market in Moscow. On the one hand, there is unprecedented customer demand, which is expressed in an unprecedented number of preschool-age residents. On the other hand, legislation is being tightened regarding the financial side of the business of developers, which will ultimately lead to increased costs and higher prices. Changes in legislation will come into force in mid-2018, so a slight downward price correction is possible in the first half of the year. It is related to entering the market large number new projects from developers who will strive to begin implementation within the framework of current legislation.

The cost of construction will increase, and with it prices

In the second half of the year, the situation will change: development activity will decline, since not all developers will be able to rebuild their business to comply with legal requirements. Construction costs will increase, and with it prices. But the level of competition will remain high, which will prevent a noticeable powerful increase in cost. Thus, according to our forecasts, in the mass segment, prices at the end of 2018 will increase by approximately 2% (to 159-160 thousand rubles per sq. m), in the business and premium class, due to an increase in supply volume, the average price tag will decrease by 2 % and 4% respectively.