Ministry of Economic Development consumer price index. Inflation in Russia: how much, what does it depend on? Calculation of the coefficient for the collection of prices onzt

The GDP growth rate by the second quarter of 2019 may fall below 1% compared to the same period in 2018. Overall, next year economic growth is expected to be 1.4% versus 1.9% in 2018.

Such conclusions are contained in the updated macro forecast sent to the government this week. The ministry updated the forecast taking into account the goals set by the president, the department said in a statement. At the same time, in the basic scenario of the forecast (it is used to calculate the budget) “in currently“The prerequisites have been laid for the full implementation of the set of measures developed by the government aimed at accelerating economic growth and improving the demographic situation.”

Note that so far this comprehensive plan is known only in general outline. On Monday, she approved the government's proposed increase in VAT from 18% to 20% from 2019. The parliament also approved amendments to the Budget Code, providing for the creation of a Fund for the Development of Infrastructure Projects with a volume of 3.5 trillion rubles. and complicating the investment process with the “investment justification” mechanism. Proposals to increase the retirement age have also been submitted to parliament.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economic Development explains the slowdown in economic growth in 2019 primarily by the slowdown in real wage growth next year. The fact is, it follows from the forecast that in 2018 wages grew too quickly and next year this growth will slow down. In 2018, the government indexed wages for social sector workers to the target level, and the minimum wage was raised to living wage. In addition, in 2019, indexation for other categories of public sector employees will be carried out not from January 1, but from October 1. “The absence of significant pressure on wages from the public sector will cause the growth rate of real wages in the private sector to converge with the growth rate of labor productivity.” - the Ministry of Economic Development predicts.

As a result, the growth rate of real wages will fall from the expected 6.3% in 2018 to less than 1% in 2019.

At the same time, household final consumption will also decrease from 3.5% to 2.6% year on year in 2019.

“On the other hand, at real growth rates wages, as well as their purchasing power, will be negatively affected by the acceleration of inflation,” the forecast says. The reason for the rise in inflation is the increase in VAT rates and it is temporary.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, “the share of goods and services subject to the basic VAT rate in the consumer basket remains 76%. Accordingly, the “counting” contribution to inflation from an increase in the base VAT rate from 18% to 20% is estimated at 1.3 percentage points.”

The ministry believes that next year there will be two “secondary effects” that are opposite in direction: “an increase in inflation expectations and a partial absorption of the effect of the VAT increase due to the margins of manufacturers and sellers, which will be comparable in scale.”

Also, a likely effect of rising inflation expectations already in 2018 will be “future consumption” of durable goods, for which the population will expect price increases. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that inflation will accelerate from current levels to 3.1% year-on-year in December 2018. It is proposed to contain inflation through monetary policy measures of the Central Bank. And then inflation at the end of 2019 will be 4.3%, “which is generally a minor deviation from the target of 4%.”

The macro forecast concluded that “as the contribution from the VAT increase comes out of the calculation base, inflation is likely to fall below 4%.” At the end of 2020, the inflation forecast is already 3.8%. Further, from 2021 to 2024, the Ministry of Economic Development considers price growth to be stable at 4%.

But the recovery in real wage growth is not so optimistic. In 2020, growth is possible at 1.5%. In 2021 - 2.3%. And from 2022 to 2024, real wage growth is expected to be 2.8% per year. That is, the government package of measures does not imply any explicit indexation of wages.

But from the macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development it follows that in order to restore economic growth, “the key condition is the redistribution of the structure of expenses in favor of investment ones.” A set of measures will be aimed at solving this problem economic policy, including both the redistribution of federal budget expenditures in favor of investment and the implementation of infrastructure construction projects with the attraction of funds from private investors.

It is also planned to create conditions for the growth of investment activity in the private sector. “This will be achieved by ensuring stable and easy conditions for business,” the macro forecast says.

This means that businesses will be offered stable tax conditions, predictable tariff regulation, a reduction in criminal procedural risks of business activity and the completion of control and supervision reform.

The Ministry of Economic Development also suggests reducing the state's share in the economy.

In addition, the set of economic policy measures will include measures aimed at creating sources of long-term savings in the economy. This is the creation of a voluntary funded pension system and the expansion of the range of savings instruments for the population. A transition from neutral banking regulation to stimulating regulation is also expected.

“With the successful implementation of the entire set of economic policy measures, GDP growth will accelerate to above 3% in the period 2021-2024,” says the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development.

Note that such indicators as oil and well dollar, this time changes in forecast indicators do not have a serious impact. According to calculations by the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2019 the dollar exchange rate will be 63.2 rubles\$, which will grow by 2020 only to 63.8 rubles\$. The forecast for the exchange rate for 2021 is 64 rubles\$ and for 2022 - 64.7 rubles\$. Only in 2024 will the exchange rate rise to 68 rubles\$.

The forecast for the oil market is also calm. In conditions of fairly confident growth in global demand, oil exporting countries decided on June 23 to increase oil production to 1 million barrels. in a day.

Under these conditions, it is predicted that the volume of oil production in Russia will amount to 549 million tons in this year in 2018, and in 2019 it will increase to 555 million tons and to 560 million tons in 2020-2021. Russia plans to reduce production only in 2024 to 555 million tons.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Economic Development included in the base scenario for the socio-economic development forecast a decrease in URALS oil prices to $63.4 on average for 2019.

In 2020, the price is expected to be $59.7 per barrel. And in 2024 to $53.5.

These indicators will primarily affect redistribution budget expenditures, which had already been previously distributed among budget recipients at the end of June.

Price index and deflator index are special economic indicators that allow you to predict what the real cost of work, goods or services will be in the future.

What is a deflator index

The level of prices for food and essential goods is of interest to almost all residents of Russia. What will the price tags in stores be like in the new year? This question is asked by everyone, from young to old. In order to have at least some idea of ​​the cost of goods, works, and services, officials use a special calculation coefficient.

The deflator index is the basis for determining the dynamics of price indicators in the future. That is, by applying the approved deflator index for 2020-2021 (Ministry of Economic Development) to the current price, it is easy to calculate the cost of a specific category of product or product in the planning period.

Why is this necessary? The calculated indicator is used not only for predicting prices. The deflator index also helps to assess the real level of income of the population. That is, to determine how many products, goods, and services a citizen with a certain income level can purchase.

By analyzing the price level and the solvency of the population, officials determine the directions of social policy. This is necessary to support socially vulnerable categories of citizens. In other words, officials define a set of measures that are aimed at financial support for low-income Russians below the poverty line.

Despite the importance of the calculated coefficients, their use has a significant drawback. When calculating future prices, the inflation rate is significantly underestimated. And this has a negative impact on determining the real level of income of the country's population.

Areas of application

Next, officials determine what prices will be in future periods. Having received the cost positions, the level of income of the population is assessed. Moreover, the analysis is carried out for each category of citizens separately. Calculations are carried out taking into account the needs of the adult working population, minor Russians and, of course, pensioners.

These indicators allow us to forecast the need for indexation of benefits, pension payments and other social supplements. All operations are carried out taking into account the deflator index - annual indexation of benefits at the expense of the Fund social insurance(usually carried out in January-February), indexation of pensions, increasing the value of pension points, increasing social compensation, additional payments and allowances.

Note that social policy is not the only area of ​​application of coefficients. For example, the deflator index for 2020 in construction allows you to determine price indicators for Construction Materials, services and works. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Prices, for example, for finished housing ultimately depend on these calculations.

The deflator index for 2020 for estimates has a similar meaning. This coefficient allows you to predict the level of government procurement, determine the need and solvency Russian organizations in the planning period. For example, a company, when planning the purchase of goods, works, and services, is obliged to take into account not only the completed amounts of financing and its needs, but also the dynamics of prices for the necessary goods, works, and services.

Let us note that none of the spheres of state activity can do without the use of deflator indices. Even the tax system contains calculations based on the application of these coefficients.

Scenarios and calculations

The Ministry of Economic Development is obliged to calculate and approve deflator indices by 2021. Moreover, the values ​​are determined for each reporting period separately, and the forecasting of coefficients is carried out by officials taking into account external and internal factors. Depending on how each factor affects the overall state of the economy, several development options are determined.

In simple words, the Ministry of Economic Development approves forecast deflator indices until 2021 based on scenarios. What is it for? Let's show it with an example.

It's no secret that in relation to Russian Federation a number of countries have introduced restrictive sanctions. The price level for raw materials (especially oil products) has negative dynamics. The level of customs duties and fees is growing. And officials, when determining deflator indices for 2020-2021, take these factors into account. They develop three scenarios at once:

1. Basic, in which all external and internal factors will retain their current values. In simple words, sanctions will remain in place, oil prices will fluctuate around $40-50 per barrel, and customs duties will be frozen at the 2018-2020 level.
2. A favorable forecast, in which a positive development trend is expected. For example, sanctions will be eased or completely lifted. Prices for oil products will rise, and customs duties on Russian goods will be reduced.
3. Target scenario. This type of prognosis is the most unfavorable. Provides for the most negative impacts of external and internal factors on the Russian economy. For example, sanctions will be tightened, the price of oil will drop to critical levels, customs duties will be increased significantly, the level of inflation and unemployment within the country will increase.

Consequently, the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development are not only a coefficient for calculating price dynamics in the future, but also an important indicator of the development of the Russian economy as a whole, taking into account the influence of external and internal factors.

How to count

The calculation of the indicator is the ratio of nominal values ​​to current ones. Moreover, the resulting indicator is recalculated into percentages. Let's see how the deflator index is used for 2020 (the order of the Ministry of Economic Development determines the formula):

ID = nominal values ​​/ current (real) values ​​× 100%.

For example, how is the GDP deflator index calculated:

ID GDP = nominal GDP / real GDP × 100%.

This indicator is general. It characterizes the dynamics of prices for all goods, works, and services for both consumer and industrial purposes. Because GDP is the estimated value of everything produced in an accounting period. But the GDP deflator index indicates the dynamics of prices in the Russian economy as a whole.

Forecast values

In order to apply tax standards, the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020 were approved in Order No. 684 dated October 21, 2019, and the limits on insurance premiums are indexed annually. The limit for switching to the simplified tax system should be indexed similarly, but officials froze it in order to support business.

For 2020, officials have already fixed the indicators in the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024. Using the explanations from the letter of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated October 3, 2018 No. 28438-AT/D03i, we obtain the following deflator index for 2020 (Ministry of Economic Development):

• construction - 105.1;
• oil - 103.6;
• water supply and sanitation - 104.0;
• gas supply, electricity supply - 104.2;
• consumer price index - 103.8;
• agriculture - 103.3.

Note that these indicators are given for the basic scenario of economic development and are relevant while maintaining the current values ​​of internal and external factors.

Deflator index 2020-2021 is special economic indicator, which allows you to predict the final price for certain goods, works and services, as well as estimate the real income of the population or the purchasing power of Russians. In the article we will understand what this indicator represents, and also determine what deflator indices will operate for 2020-2021.

What kind of indicator is this?

In simple terms, the deflator index is a certain economic coefficient that allows you to calculate the final cost of services, goods, products, and work. For example, the deflator index for 2020 in construction, prices for food, utilities and household services, the cost of medicines and basic necessities.

By approving the deflator index for 2020-2021, the Ministry of Economic Development determines what price values ​​will be in the future. Such forecasts are necessary so that officials can timely adjust socio-economic policies. In simple words, to identify a number of measures that will improve the life of the Russian people and prevent the excessive influence of negative factors (impoverishment of the population, inflation, a sharp jump in unemployment, rising prices).

For comparison, the price index and deflator index - the meanings of the terms are quite similar. Only a price index indicates what specific value the price of a specific product will take in a specific period of time. And the deflator index, in turn, determines price values ​​for a group of goods, works or services.

How it works

When developing the deflator index for 2020, the Ministry of Economic Development approves the Order for several periods at once. The values ​​are used to forecast the development of the country, as well as to determine measures for social and economic support of the population.

The deflator index (calculation formula) is defined as the ratio of the nominal price indicator to the real price indicator, converted into a percentage.

For example, the key macroeconomic indicator, the GDP deflator index, formula:

It is worth considering that this indicator has a significant drawback. It understates the inflation rate. That is why a number of representatives of ministries and departments use deflator indices for economic forecasts. As a result, the results obtained show a systematic and stable improvement in the lives of the population, as well as an endless increase in citizens’ incomes. In reality, this does not happen, at least on the scale described.

After the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2021 have been approved, officials begin comprehensive analysis and forecasting. The main goal is to develop probable scenarios or, in simple terms, action plans that will be applied in case of favorable or negative development.

Deflator indices for the next three years

Development scenarios

Currently, the Ministry of Economic Development is developing three types of scenarios for the Russian economy:

1. The basic plan, which implies that the indicators of the main factors of the Russian economy will remain at the base or current level. That is, they will not undergo any changes.
2. The conservative scenario provides for a significant deterioration in socio-economic indicators. The plan takes into account not only internal but also external factors.
3. A target plan under which the optimal development of events is expected for the Russian economy both in the domestic and foreign markets. For example, the lifting of sanctions, the reduction of fiscal duties and encumbrances, rising prices for raw materials, etc.

Not only internal development indicators (GDP, tax system, minimum wage, price indicators, size of the consumer basket) are analyzed. But also external factors. Currently, special attention is paid to the sanctions that were applied by the United States and the European Union.

Basic scenario

This forecast plan provides the following values:

1. Energy demand will increase. Prices for petroleum products will remain at current levels. Such values ​​will be achieved by complying with the agreement on reducing oil production. Although some pressure from the United States will still remain due to increased shale oil production.
2. Maintaining global economic growth at 2.8%. Countries with the most developed economies are expected to slow down their pace of development. The Chinese economy will slow down due to rising debt burden and trade tariffs. Developing countries will not be able to improve their performance due to lower prices in the commodity market.
3. Exports of Russian oil products will increase. The reason will be the best price offers Russian market, in comparison with competing states.
4. The growth in the level of investment will be ensured by compliance with the standards of the federal program to support medium and small businesses (benefits for small businesses, tax holidays).
5. The development of the import substitution sector will expand industrial areas, increase the number of jobs, and increase labor productivity.

The result of economic development under this scenario will be a reduction in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, as well as an increase in the real level of income of the population to 1.5%. Which will have a positive impact on increasing demand, as well as on the growth of consumer lending.

Target development plan

The deflator index for 2020 for estimates with positive development provides for similar indicators as the basic plan. However, officials provided additional (exceptional) factors:

1. Demographic indicators according to Rosstat. Significant population growth is planned, which will be due not only to an increase in the birth rate, but also to migration growth.
2. Increased production of petroleum products will increase the flow of investment, both domestic and external (foreign) capital. Growth will be ensured by the commissioning of new wells and improvement of production technologies.
3. Will strengthen Russian ruble in relation to foreign exchange rates. Namely in relation to American dollar and euro.
4. Dynamics of growth of internal gross product will reach a figure of at least 3.1% per year.

Let us note that the main lever for achieving indicators of positive economic development is strengthening positions in the commodity market, namely through the sale of oil products and gas.

Conservative plan

The forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020 imply that the Russian economy will be affected by numerous negative factors. The main unfavorable criteria include:

1. Tightening of the monetary economy of other countries.
2. "Hard landing" of the Chinese economy.
3. A sharp decline in the price of oil (below $35 per barrel).
4. Weakening position of the ruble against the US dollar.
5. Decrease in GDP growth rate to 0.8%.
6. Inflation will reach 4.3% or higher.

Officials pay special attention to this development plan, since the impact of the global crisis cannot be ignored.

Forecast for 2020

Planned deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020, taking into account latest changes, were finally adjusted at the last moment. The main changing factors were: an increase in the retirement age, an increase in VAT, a tax maneuver in the oil industry, and an increase in excise taxes on fuel.

Taking into account these innovations in tax and social policy The Ministry of Economic Development announces the following indicators:

• consumer goods - 104.4;
• goods of the industrial sector - 104.1;
• wholesale gas prices - 103.8;
• coal cost coefficient - 103.9;
• expected cost of fuel oil - 102.1;
• forecast prices for electricity (retail) - 109.1;
• utilities (water supply and heat supply) - 105.1;
• deflator index for 2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development (construction) - 105.0;
• The planned prices for cargo transportation by Russian Railways are 105.2.

Expected indicators for the base scenario in the table:

Ask questions and we will supplement the article with answers and explanations!

As we reported today, the Ministry of Economic Development has worsened its own forecast for the level of inflation and the ruble exchange rate for 2018. The reason for this was the threat of new American sanctions and the outflow of capital from developing economies, including Russia.

In addition to the forecast for the current year, there is also a macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for longer periods. What does the inflation forecast in Russia for 2019-2021, compiled by the Ministry of Economic Development, look like, when can we expect an update to this forecast.

The latest correction of the forecast for 2018 by economists of the Ministry of Economic Development is preliminary. It was promised that next week, before the end of August, the Ministry of Economic Development will present a fresh macroeconomic forecast for 2018 and the planning period until 2024. However, as government economists have already commented, the August forecast will mainly be adjusted in terms of the main indicators for 2018. As for the period from 2019 to 2024, there will be no changes or they will be purely cosmetic and insignificant.

The latest forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development was presented in June. As for inflation in 2019-2021 and beyond, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation names the following preliminary data:

• 2019 - 4.3%,
• 2020 - 3.8%,
• 2021 - 4.0%,
• 2022 - 4.0%,
• 2023 - 4.0%,
• 2024 - 4.0%.

Four percent is the target or goal for inflation in Russia. For the most part, this goal is consistently achieved, but 2019 may be an exception. The reason is the increase in VAT tax from 18 percentage points to 20.

The June update of the forecast was due precisely to the fact that the president signed a law on amendments to the Tax Code, thanks to which the VAT rate will increase from January 1, 2019. The Ministry of Economic Development considers this event to be a fairly strong factor that will have an impact on rising inflation and a slowdown in economic growth next year.

Moreover, the VAT increase will affect inflation in Russia as early as 2018. Despite the fact that the tax rate will increase only after the new year, some entrepreneurs will factor it into the prices of their products in advance. In addition, in anticipation of rising prices at the end of the year, Russians will almost certainly buy many types of goods in advance. Increased demand will cause prices to rise and inflation to rise.

The most painful effect of the VAT rate increase will, of course, come in 2019. For example, suppliers utilities They are already asking the state to further increase tariffs from January to compensate them for the increased tax. Similarly, all goods and services will become more expensive.

As for the growth rate of the Russian economy, an increase in the VAT rate will slow down GDP growth, and noticeably.

Already this year, the GDP growth rate at the end of the year will be 1.9% instead of the previously expected 2.1%. But in 2019, the slowdown in growth will be much more dramatic - instead of 2.2% GDP growth, only 1.4% can be expected.

A slight economic recovery will only occur in 2020. Inflation will decrease slightly and the GDP growth rate will increase. In 2020, production is expected to grow by more than 2%, and in 2021 it is expected to grow by 3% or more.

In fact, only from 2021 or even later will the Russian economy be able to reach global growth rates.

This means that all the figures that the Ministry of Economic Development includes in its macroeconomic forecast for 2019-2021 indicate that the Russian economy continues to lag behind the global economy. From about 2021-2022, we can cautiously expect that our country’s economy will grow on par with the world’s and will at least cease to lag behind it. As for the prospects for accelerated growth, they are not even being talked about yet.

Every year in Russia, as in other countries, there is an increase in prices. Products, housing and utility tariffs, services, training in a word - everything are becoming more expensive. At the same time, the level of wages remains unchanged or changes so slightly that it becomes incomparable with the rise in prices. What forecast of future inflation for 2019 does the government promise?

Definition of inflation

First you need to define what inflation is. This is the devaluation (devaluation) of government money circulating within the country due to its excessive quantity. That is, there is an increase in prices for all types of goods and services. This means that for the same amount of money you buy fewer goods than before. Money depreciates and the purchasing power of citizens decreases.

There are special indicators by which inflation is calculated. One of them is the inflation index, which is also called the consumer price index (CPI). It shows changes in the price level for the most common goods among the population, i.e. the consumer basket. The CPI is calculated by specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank (Central Bank of Russia).

What will influence inflation growth next year:

• Increase in VAT (Value Added Tax) from January 1, 2019.
• The likelihood of a sales tax (in addition to VAT).
• Rising prices for fuel and energy resources.
• Emission (printing additional money supply).
• Outflow Money from the country.
• Sanctions.

The main risk remains the dependence of the cost of oil on world market prices, which are highly unstable and subject to sharp fluctuations. A fall in world oil prices will lead to the devaluation of the ruble against other world currencies. This means it will lead to an increase in prices for imported goods, an increase in tariffs and taxes, and emissions.

What are deflator indices?

Deflator is a coefficient that shows the change in the cost of goods for both consumer and industrial purposes. Simply put, it shows the ratio of the former price to the current one. For recalculation, two indicators are used:

• DVDP (Gross Domestic Product Deflator).
• DVNP (Gross National Product Deflator).

Indicators obtained using these indices show changes in the volume of production of goods and services in the country. By studying these changes, it is possible to predict and plan economic development. These calculations are carried out by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and published on its website.

Forecast of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Each of us wondered what awaits Russia in the coming year. In what direction will the country's economy change, and how will the well-being of the population change? The Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank, as well as other departments and structures involved in calculations and forecasts of the state of the economy, can answer these questions.

The Central Bank of Russia is taking measures aimed at stabilizing and controlling prices, one of which is increasing key rate. But despite this, the Central Bank’s forecasts for next year are disappointing and inflation will amount to 5.5%.

According to official data from the Ministry of Economic Development, the predicted inflation for 2019 will be 4.3%. Based on this indicator, the government formed the country's budget for the next year. It should be noted that this figure differs slightly from the government’s target of 4%.

The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) generates statistical information about changes related to the economy. The inflation forecast from Rosstat in 2019 will be:

Inflation will remain in the range of 4-4.5%, the Ministry of Finance predicts. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation believes that the Central Bank's forecasts for 2019 of 5.5% are overestimated and pessimistic. The discrepancy in the figures suggests that the Central Bank made its forecasts based on assumptions of lower oil prices and other indicators.

It is not clear who to believe, because the expected inflation rate for the coming year 2019 varies greatly in different departments. Discrepancies are associated with difficulties, and sometimes impossibility, to predict certain events.

Forecasts of independent experts for 2019

If state institutions and the government expects the inflation rate next year to be within an acceptable range of 3.5-4.5%, the opinions of independent experts are not so optimistic.

Analysts from FxPro see the problem in the government’s implementation of measures that will reduce the rate of economic growth and increase inflationary phenomena:

• VAT increase.
• Raising the retirement age (this bill is being actively considered).
• Budget expenditure on various mega-constructions.
• Reluctance to rebuild the economy (its dependence on oil prices).

Analysts from the Institute. Gaidar is added to this list by sanctions, low prices for petroleum products, instability of the dollar and difficulties in the country's agricultural complex caused by bad weather. All these processes will lead to inflation being 5%, and possibly higher.

How will the economic situation in the country affect ordinary citizens? To stabilize the economy, the government can use the following options:

• Emission (printing new money).
• Increase in taxes.
• Reduction of social benefits in various areas.
• Resumption of privatization measures.

It is clear that such measures will be applied if the state fails to adapt the economy to future risks and find a way out of the situation.

There are other forecasts, more optimistic. With a consistently high oil price, the inflation rate will gradually decrease and the purchasing power of the population will begin to grow again, and the well-being of citizens will improve.

In any case, the government is trying to smooth out negative processes and make life easier for ordinary citizens. Thus, at the proposal of the president, changes were made to the pension legislation of the Russian Federation. They will allow the government to implement measures to index (increase) social payments by 7% and prevent inflation of pensions in the coming 2019. Even despite the jump in prices that experts expect at the beginning of next year, future payments will allow pensioners to feel protected. Money to increase pensions is included in the Federal State. a budget whose income level exceeds its expenses.

The forecast of something always has clarifications and is not a constant value. Now there is a positive trend in the prospects for the development of the country's economy, if the price of oil does not change and new sanctions are not introduced. Any of these changes will immediately affect the inflation process. The size of the predicted inflation in Russia for 2019 causes heated debate and disagreement among experts. We will find out which of them was closer to reality very soon.