The expert assessed the chances of Clinton and Trump in the presidential election. Trump's last chance: how the televised debates of US presidential candidates went Chance for correction

© AP Despite outrage from fellow Republicans over Donald Trump's increasingly outrageous statements, the New York billionaire continues to lead Republicans in the race for the presidency.

But can he convert high poll numbers into success when it comes to choosing the Republican nominee or when Americans vote for a new president?

In local elections in France, the two leading parties managed to prevent the National Front from entering the corridors of power. Who really won and who lost in these elections? The National Front was unable to build on the success it achieved in the first round.

Donald Trump is a billionaire and a very colorful character, whom Americans familiar with the Russian political situation like to compare with Vladimir Zhirinovsky. August 2015. 50367. What are the chances of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States?

Despite the outrage of fellow Republicans over Donald Trump's increasingly outrageous statements, the New York billionaire continues to lead among Republicans in the race for the presidency, the BBC writes.

We asked American experts what are Donald Trump's chances?

Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute

Despite the fact that experts have long agreed that Donald Trump has no chance, he is in this company for a long time and definitely has a chance of being nominated by the Republicans.

We need to be careful in our assessments. The primaries are still a long way off, and some polls suggest Trump supporters have not voted in primaries before.

His support isn't capped at 25%, but even if it were, he could win some early votes and gain momentum. He didn't need to spend a lot of money yet, but he did raise significant resources to create the electoral structure in the early states.

A Canadian man left his wife and seven children to become a little girl. The 52-year-old man said that he feels like a member of the other sex, moreover, a child. He admitted that as a child he could not wear dresses and bows, so he decided to make up for lost time as an adult. The father of the family, Paul Wolscht, left his wife after 23 years of marriage. Even before his marriage, he liked to dress in women's clothes, but then he met his future wife, Maria. Six years ago, Paul realized that he was in fact a woman, and...

Opponents of Donald Trump believe that the fight for the White House is not over yet. The first successes on this path have already been achieved, but does Trump have reason to be nervous? Secondly, both Clinton and Obama have already recognized Trump as the 45th president of the United States, and the attempt to play back

In a review of British newspapers: Donald Trump's chances of becoming president, the first steps towards Brexit and the threat to democracy in Turkey. Will Donald Trump reach the White House? All British newspapers write that the US Republican Party convention has put forward

The higher the likelihood of another terrorist attack in the United States and even Europe, like those that happened in Paris or San Bernardino, the more his harsh rhetoric attracts angry, worried, conservative voters.

One cannot underestimate the strength of public sentiment in the United States directed against the political elite - against Obama, and against the leaders of the Republicans. These sentiments are also fueled by radio programs and bloggers who have serious financial incentives.

Trump winning the presidential election is highly unlikely, but not impossible.

It's important not to lose sight of Ted Cruz, who has a good chance of winning the Republican nomination if Trump makes a mistake. Cruz has consistently courted evangelicals and supporters of fellow candidate Ben Carson, and has cleverly positioned himself to take votes away from Donald Trump.

As Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen grow in popularity among American and French voters, their statements on various issues are increasingly being compared. What do these two politicians have in common? "Donald Trump has become America's Marine Le Pen," reads a New Yorker headline.

Do you think Donald Trump has a chance to win the US presidential election? No, he will be the Republican candidate, but the president will be a Democrat. As he noted, “Trump’s opponents in the party will put spokes in his wheel, actually playing

*Chris Cummins*, Euronews: Despite the split among Republicans, Donald Trump is entering the battle for the White House and he needs to fight for votes. How will he

Robert Schlesinger, Managing Editor, Opinion, US News & World Report

There are several compelling reasons not to believe that Donald Trump will become the Republican nominee. We can start with history.

Never before has a major political party in the United States nominated as its presidential candidate a person who, like Trump, has no political experience.

For five people in US history, the presidency was their first elected office. But three of them were war heroes, and the other two had previously worked as secretaries of the presidential administration.

Recent experience suggests that public polling is seriously flawed.

Eight years ago, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the Republican leader all year, according to public opinion polls. The man who won the 2008 primary, Arizona Senator John McCain, was in fourth place in the polls.

Four years ago, former Speaker of Congress Newt Gingrich had a significant lead over Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor won the primary despite Gingrich twice ahead of him in the polls.

A petition on the British government website demanding that billionaire Donald Trump be banned from entering the country has collected a record number of signatures. However, is there a chance that the country’s authorities will actually introduce such a ban? In just a few days, more than 500 thousand people signed the petition. No other similar document on a government website has previously collected such a number of signatures.

Armen Oganesyan, editor-in-chief of the magazine "International Life", for MIA "Russia Today". “The American dream is dead, but I will return it to you” - under this slogan Donald Trump literally burst into the election campaign.

Donald Trump has agreed to become the Republican Party's presidential candidate. In his speech, Donald Trump promised. Donald Trump's main rival is the representative of the Democratic Party and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump has clearly touched a nerve with Republican voters who feel uncertain about the struggling economy, the country's changing demographics and terrorism. But the endless articles about him in the press also play into his hands.

Either way, whether his rival finally launches a serious attack on Trump using paid advertising, or his supporters are alienated by his agenda leading to the political margins, Trump's star will fade long before the final Republican primaries.

Froma Harrop, columnist

At first, Donald Trump's election campaign seemed frivolous. Some said his early outrageous statements, such as attacks on Latinos, were an attempt to sabotage a campaign he never took seriously.

But the reality is that, despite all the international criticism, he remains popular among blue collar workers, his main audience.

Can Trump Win the Republican Primary? Now there is no longer any doubt about the seriousness of his intentions. There is now no confidence that the elders of the Republican Party will easily defeat his candidacy and nominate a more decent candidate.

Yes, Trump can win the Republican nomination.

US presidential candidate Donald Trump thanked Vladimir Putin for the compliment addressed to him. The White House found it difficult to answer the question of whether Trump could improve Russian-American relations. During a conversation with reporters at the end of the press conference, Putin called Trump a very talented person. “It is not our business to determine his merits, this is the business of US voters, but he is the absolute leader of the presidential race,” said the Russian head of state. “He says that he wants to move to another level of relations, a denser, deeper level of relations with Russia, how can we not welcome this? Of course, we welcome this,” Putin said.

Trump has a good chance of becoming president. Businessman and television star Donald Trump has launched a campaign to run for the 2016 presidential election. Because chances are he will actually do what he says and will be focused on

In all this, however, there are elements of bluff. Trump is not a man from Wall Street, not a representative of the financial oligarchy. If things really go to the point where Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton clash in the fight for the White House, then it will be a clash between the old

Can he win the presidential election? No way. Polls have long shown that Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic nominee, is ahead of all possible Republican challengers.

His recent escapade has been so bizarre that many Republicans are openly contemplating voting for Clinton. According to a recent poll, a third of Republicans say Trump scares or worries them.

And let's not forget that while Trump is leading the Republican field, only 35% of the Republican electorate supports him.

The next president will not be Trump. But the fact that he's gotten this far is worrying enough.

Kylie Kondik, political campaign researcher at the University of Virginia

Some point to Trump's consistent lead among Republicans as a sign that his various absurd statements have not harmed him. But I think they seriously hurt him.

Trump's racist statements and ideas have united the party's leadership against him, making it much easier for other candidates to argue that his candidacy would be a disaster, especially against Hillary Clinton, whom Republicans do not want to see take the presidency.

Party primaries are a long process, starting in February and ending only in July. Unlike previous years, when less successful candidates withdrew from the race early to support the leading candidate, there is now no desire for other contenders to abandon the race to support Trump.

The Platon system, under which drivers and owners of heavy trucks pay for travel on federal highways, has already managed to make a lot of noise and provoke a whole series of protests. But it is possible that a similar system will be introduced not only on federal, but also on regional roads. However, it is immediately worth noting that so far there is no talk of introducing a toll - the very concept of such a toll system is still being discussed, and there are no concrete decisions according to officials, it has not yet been accepted. However, as the Moscow agency reports, the development of a system similar to Platon has already become interested in the Moscow region.

And so experts decided to analyze the work of current President Donald Trump in order to assess all his chances in the presidential race. How they managed to find out that Trump may face several obstacles on the way to a second term. Lately you can

Donald Trump is just Donald Trump—a celebrity who jumped onto the political scene saying Republican leaders are stupid and corrupt. And four out of five Latino voters say they have no intention of voting for Donald Trump.

If he thought three hours on the podium during a debate was an ordeal, we'll wait to see what he says after this marathon.

Nationally, Trump is very unpopular. One recent survey showed that 30% of the population had a positive view of him, and 60% had a negative attitude. It's hard to imagine how he can change this situation.

One of the main questions in this presidential election is whether Hillary Clinton will be able to engage the traditionally passive non-white part of the electorate.

In this sense, having Donald Trump on the ballot would be the best motivator for Clinton and the Democrats.

Rebecca Dean, professor of political science, University of Texas

Despite the fact that Trump has attracted enormous media attention and successfully used the public order to appear as a so-called anti-politician, he is still very far from winning the primaries. To win, he needs to receive the support of 1,236 delegates out of 2,470. He will receive the votes of delegates if he achieves a high percentage of the vote in each of the states.

The small problem is that the Republican National Committee has decreed that all states voting before March 15th must elect all of their delegates proportionally, based on the number of votes they receive. After March 15th, winner takes all.

Several state primaries will take place before this date. The results in Iowa and New Hampshire are important because they can set the overall mood.

Trump leads by 18 percent in New Hampshire, according to the latest polls, but he's tied with Sen. Ted Cruz in Iowa, once margins of error are taken into account.

After these two states, primaries will be held in South Carolina and Nevada, and on March 1, on the so-called “Super Tuesday,” 12 states will vote at once.

The bill was submitted to the Moscow City Duma, the Department of Transport no longer supported the idea © Anton Belitsky/Kommersant A draft law was submitted to the Moscow City Duma to transfer to municipal deputies the powers to approve new paid parking lots. The initiative was taken by the Council of Deputies of the Ostankino District. The Moscow Department of Transport did not support the idea: shifting responsibility to deputies in the department is considered “wrong and dishonest.” Experts admit that the chances of the bill being passed are slim, but the president’s recent statement on paid parking, in theory, could influence the final decision of the authorities.

The live debates between US presidential candidates showed that Americans are more interested in the moral character of the future leader and social programs than in diplomatic tensions

US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton during the second round of official debates (Photo: Reuters/Pixstream)

Chance for correction

On the evening of Sunday, October 9, the second (penultimate) round of official debates between the US presidential candidates - Republican representative Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton - took place at Washington University in St. Louis (Missouri).

The final debate, organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), will take place on October 19 in Nevada, but an informal debate between all eight presidential candidates from different parties, organized by the non-governmental foundation Free & Equal Elections, is scheduled for October 25. True, in the two previous election campaigns, candidates from leading parties did not take part in such events.

​Before Sunday's debate in St. Louis, the election campaign. On Friday alone, The Washington Post published a 2005 video of Trump's controversial remarks about women, and the WikiLeaks portal made public an array of letters from the head of Clinton's campaign headquarters. The Associated Press found in the correspondence a review of Clinton's closed speeches to investors, where she expressed a position contrary to her official rhetoric.

For Trump's Republican Party allies, the videotaped incident was the last straw after recent scandals over his tax return, a dispute with a former Miss Universe and an unconvincing performance at the first debate. Therefore, the October 9 debate was seen as Trump's last chance to save his campaign (amid numerous calls to replace him with vice presidential candidate Mike Pence). Trump ultimately took advantage of this chance, believes Pavel Demidov, an expert at the Center for Strategic Research.

Voice of the People

Unlike previous and subsequent debates, this time the event had a straight-line format: questions were asked by citizens present in the hall, “ordinary Americans” selected by Gallup pollsters. The moderators of the discussion selected some of the questions from those received via the Internet from viewers, sometimes the moderators developed the topic of the question on their own.

In fact, the debates are a rare opportunity to find out the opinions of ordinary Americans in the midst of a controversial election campaign. It was originally planned that the moderators would choose from the 30 most popular questions, each candidate (or one of them, if the question was for him) would have two minutes to answer, another minute was given to the moderator to summarize and move on to the next question.

Judging by the transcript of the event published by The Washington Post, 14 questions were asked at the debate, not counting the candidates' addresses to each other and clarifying questions from the moderators. Of these, the main part—eight questions—was raised by the audience present in the hall. Four questions were taken from online platforms (for example, from the social network Facebook), two more questions were asked by the moderators themselves, moving away from the topic under discussion.

Video: RBC TV channel

Based on the topic, the questions asked can be divided into two large groups. First, Americans were interested in the personal qualities of candidates; in particular, in connection with numerous scandals - eight questions. Secondly, they talked about socio-economic problems within the United States: these are questions about Obamacare health insurance, the fight against Islamophobia, the tax system, the procedure for appointing Supreme Court judges and priority energy policy.

​Out of this series of domestic policy concerns, the only question that stood out was from a certain Diana from Pennsylvania, who was interested in how the candidates planned to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo: “Isn’t this like the Holocaust, when the United States also hesitated for a long time before intervening?”

Looking for the enemy

The candidates avoided many domestic political issues by resorting to mutual accusations. For example, when talking about taxes, Trump mentioned that opponents accuse him of hiding returns: “Clinton says I exploited loopholes in the tax code. But why didn’t she correct them while she was a senator?”

Clinton countered such statements by saying that it was difficult for her to pass the necessary laws in the Senate “under a Republican president,” meaning George Bush. Moreover, she began answering the question about priorities in energy policy by accusing Trump of buying steel from China at dumping prices to build his hotels, “leaving American steelworkers without work.”

No less consistently, the candidates used international aspects in the discussion to avoid pressing domestic issues. Here's an example from Trump: answering a question about the obscene video, he noted that it would be incorrect to discuss his words “while ISIS (a terrorist group banned in Russia) is cutting heads right and left.”

“I intend to defeat ISIS in alliance with the majority of Muslim countries. But now many of them look at what Donald says and wonder: why should they cooperate with the Americans? This is a gift to terrorists,” Clinton said in turn when asked about the fight against Islamophobia.

Trump's position on the issue of US allies is somewhat different. “I don’t like Bashar al-Assad, but he is fighting ISIS. Russia and Iran too. “This trio joined forces because of the weakness of our diplomacy,” the billionaire assures. “Now we need to concentrate on the fight against ISIS.” We have those who want to fight both with them and with Damascus. But Syria is no longer Syria. Russia and Iran are in favor of it.” According to Trump, he “does not personally know” Vladimir Putin, but “would like” to crush ISIS together with him. Clinton, for her part, promised that she would not tighten Washington’s current policy and send ground troops to Syria.

Overall, the topic of Russia came up during the debate at least four times. In addition to the fight against Islamists in Syria, Clinton criticized Moscow for the bombing of Aleppo. Trump avoided a direct conversation, not even agreeing with the reproaches against Moscow made by Trump’s partner, vice presidential candidate Pence.

In addition, when asked about her secret speeches to financiers, which became known from the hacked email, Clinton recalled that American intelligence has evidence that Russian top leadership is behind the hackers: “For the first time in US history, we see that foreign the power is trying so zealously to influence the election results - mind you, not in my favor.” Noting Trump's favorable words for Putin, she again demanded that her rival release his tax returns, hinting at possible Kremlin funding of Trump.

Finally, responding to Clinton’s accusations against Russia that Moscow is not fighting ISIS, but protecting Assad, Trump himself noted that Washington should not have allowed Russia to take precedence in the nuclear industry and that the United States should update its nuclear program, catching up with Russia, rather than argue in vain with Moscow over the Syrian rebels.

According to a CNN poll, Clinton won the debate, according to 57% of respondents. Another 34% gave victory to her Republican opponent. Unlike CNN, which traditionally supports the Democratic Party, pollster Frank Luntz, who works for the conservative Fox News channel,

MOSCOW, July 20 – RIA Novosti. The split in the Republican Party, although it did not prevent the nomination of billionaire Donald Trump as a candidate for the post of head of the United States, will affect the presidential race not in favor of the businessman, although the chances of the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton are already higher, says the deputy dean of the Faculty of World Economics and world politics NRU-HSE, RIAC expert Andrey Suzdaltsev.

The Republican Party Convention approved Trump as its presidential candidate. On the first day of the convention, Trump opponents tried to change the voting procedure so that delegates could vote for candidates as they saw fit rather than based on the results of the primaries, but they failed. When voting on Tuesday, the billionaire received 1,725 ​​votes from congress delegates, with the required 1,237, and became the party’s candidate in the presidential election. “We will win Ohio and the presidency and bring real change to Washington,” Trump said, addressing the convention via teleconference from New York. He promised to restore the strength of the American military, defeat terrorists, take care of veterans and restore law and order.

A number of convention delegates said that their vote for the Republican candidate was not counted, MSNBC reported. In particular, one of the delegates from the capital told the TV channel that the leadership of the delegation incorrectly distributed the votes of the capital District of Columbia. In particular, according to him, out of 19 delegate votes, Ohio Governor John Kasich received 9. At the same time, the head of the Washington delegation announced during the voting that all 19 votes in the district would go to Trump.

Ten more votes were cast for Senator Marco Rubio, but were also not counted. Technically, this was correct, since Trump was the uncontested candidate in the primaries, won the popular vote and should have received all the votes in the district. However, each of the 19 delegates was personally against Trump. According to the rules, almost all delegates vote as the voters ordered, but some delegates believe that they are not obligated to do so.

“Trump is still lagging behind Hillary Clinton. Objectively, the electorate of the Republican Party is shrinking, the party is split, the split remains. The incident with the attempt to change the voting rules is very unpleasant, it suggests that the core of the party retains great claims against Trump and does not see him as their candidate,” Suzdaltsev told RIA Novosti.

As he noted, “Trump’s opponents in the party will put a spoke in his wheels, actually playing into the hands of the Democrats.”

Suzdaltsev noted that US citizens are now closer to the ideology of the Democratic Party, although Trump has certain advantages, but Clinton is still ahead. “Trump is a bright man, what he made himself speaks for him, this is the style of American life. Trump plays on a purely conservative wave: migrants, terrorism, American power. The disadvantages are that America is different now,” he said.

Suzdaltsev is convinced that it will not be easy for Russia to work with Trump, but even more difficult with Clinton. “I would not have any illusions about relations with Russia. There is a version, rooted in our American studies, that it has always been easier for us to work with Republicans who were realists and clearly stated the positions of the United States. There has been no such approach in US foreign policy for a long time. The States are behaving now we are democratizers of the world, so even if Trump wins, relations between the Russian Federation and the United States will be strained, because with all our attempts to establish partnerships, the United States sees us as a country that needs to be subjugated, to change our firmware. If Clinton is in power, the situation will be the same. “Trump, as a businessman, understands the value of agreements and their implementation,” he said.